There is currently no shortage of optimism about the digitalised future of the NHS. The 10-Year Health Plan (2025–2035) [1] aims to rescue the service through a radical shift from ‘analogue to digital’, positioning the UK as the world’s most AI-enabled healthcare system. Central to this vision is the Single Patient Record, a digital ‘patient passport’ consolidating medical history, genomics, and wearable data for seamless care. The heights of ambition are palpable and the rhetoric, infectious. As Michael Brodie, the Chief Executive of the NHS Business Services Authority, put it: ‘we don’t want a faster horse – we want a motor car’.
And yet, when we turn to the coalface, the picture is one of enthusiasm mixed with caution. Last year, as part of a Health Foundation funded project on management capacity and capability [3], we spoke to a number of senior leaders across the NHS and their message was always the same: the stark disconnect between high national expectations and the financial constraints currently facing provider trusts. As one Chief Information Officer suggested, while national rhetoric suggests money is ‘no object’ for digital projects, the current reality requires him to ‘serve more coffees and use less milk’.
For this manager and others the primary concern was about workforce capacity. The Workforce Planning and Intelligence Directorate [4] classify the NHS ‘informatics’ workforce into seven primary areas: Clinical Informatics (the largest at 39%), Information and Communication Technology (35%), Information Management (18%), Programmes and Projects, Informatics Strategy and Development, Informatics Education and Training, and Knowledge Management. As a whole, this workforce grew significantly between 2014 and 2019 – by approximately 17%, reaching an estimated size of 40,000 to 53,000 full-time equivalents (FTEs).
Unsurprisingly, projections for 2030 envision even further growth. The radical shift from ‘analogue to digital,’ will require a massive expansion in high-skilled roles like data scientists, bioinformaticians, and digital transformation facilitators to support a system where 95% of appointments are handled via the NHS App [5]. Clearly, the pivot toward a ‘digital first’ future will demand both enhanced capacity and capability.
However, the immediate reality for 2026 is defined by intense financial consolidation. NHS England has mandated that Integrated Care Boards (ICBs) reduce their running costs by up to 50% with NHS providers also told to reverse corporate cost growth by 50%. Because the digital and informatics workforce is frequently categorized within ‘corporate overheads’ or ‘non-patient-facing roles’, it has faced the full brunt of these efficiency drives. The government frames these cuts as ‘slashing bureaucracy’. But the impact on the digital workforce needed to reduce administrative friction (and ‘bureaucracy’) has been profound.
Regional evidence indicates that despite intentions to cut only ‘back-office’ staff, clinical informatics roles are often caught in the crossfire [6]. Many of the Trusts we looked at are also seeing a higher volume of job losses in support and administrative functions needed to maintain and enhance the digital infrastructure. This includes support for AI related innovations.
The NHS digital workforce is also currently navigating a period of significant structural upheaval, as the system moves toward a new operating model that devolves operational digital functions from Integrated Care Boards (ICBs) to individual Trusts and local providers. The ‘Model ICB’ reform announced early last year aims to transform ICBs into ‘leaner, strategic commissioners’ rather than large operational delivery bodies [7]. Thus, while ICBs will retain a high-level strategic commissioning role, technical responsibilities are being pushed down, closer to the frontline. Devolution of course, is not always a bad thing, especially when it helps to redirect funding toward patient care. The risk however is that it might also create a leadership vacuum, hindering workforce planning and exacerbating the problem of fragmented, non-interoperable systems.
The future demand for digital skills is expected to be met through a mix of professionalization and specialized training. Initiatives like the Topol Digital Health Fellowships [8] and the NHS Digital Academy are designed to build a pipeline of digital leaders, such as Chief Clinical Information Officers (CCIOs). To bridge the gap, the NHS is also exploring regional pilot models to attract university graduates and ‘career changers’ into informatics. Yet, the 10% vacancy rate in technical Digital, Data, and Technology (DDaT) roles [9] and continued uncertainty suggests that the NHS may struggle to compete with the private sector.
Thus, the likelihood of the NHS meeting its 2030 digitalization targets is increasingly uncertain. On one hand, the ‘Data Driven Healthcare’ strategy requires an accelerated growth of the workforce beyond the historical 3–4% annual trend. On the other hand, the 2025/26 cuts have threatened the very personnel responsible for implementing these transformations. The delay in publishing a dedicated digital workforce plan – now reportedly integrated into a broader 10-year plan for Spring 2026 – further suggests a lack of central coordination [10].
We are then confronted with a paradox. Despite the technical ambition for a digital-first NHS is clear, the current trend of job cuts in corporate functions could have a ‘hollowing out’ effect. Without protecting the digital specialists who build and maintain these systems, the shift from ‘analogue to digital’ may stall, as the workforce capacity to manage the transition is sacrificed to meet immediate deficit-reduction targets. As such, while the NHS may achieve piecemeal growth in specific high-profile AI or data roles, the broader informatics infrastructure required for systemic reform is under significant threat.
Looked at in a different light, these concerns highlight a ‘strategy-execution gap’. While the system mandates a high-tech future, it is simultaneously dismantling its technical foundation and capability. Ultimately, the NHS is attempting to drive toward a data-driven 2030 and, at the same time, gorging the personnel required to start the engine today.
References
- [1]. NHS Long Term Workforce Plan
- [2]. NHS leaders call for funding overhaul to accelerate digital transformation
- [3]. Management Capacity and Capability in the NHS
- [4]. NHS Informatics Workforce in England: Phase 1 Project Report
- [5]. Data Driven Healthcare in 2030: Transformation Requirements of the NHS Digital Technology and Health Informatics Workforce
- [6]. NHS sheds thousands of managers and support staff
- [7]. Understanding the Model ICB Blueprint
- [8]. Topol Digital Fellowships
- [9]. NHS Digital workforce statistics – November 2025
- [10]. 2026 is Pivotal for the NHS Workforce, Digital Policy